Peru: integration, sectoral specialization and synchronization with international gross domestic product cycles

Artigo publicado na edição de Abril 2012 da revista da CEPAL.

Mario D. Tello, centrum Católica and Department of Economics of the Catholic University of Peru

This paper analyses the way the integration of trade, finance and sectoral specialization
relates to the degree of synchronization between the gross domestic product (GDP) cycles
of Peru and those of the 31 countries with which it trades most. The analysis is based
on estimation of a system of simultaneous equations with panel data in which account
is also taken of the repercussions of preferential trade agreements (PTAS). The findings
reveal robust two-way relationships between synchronization and financial integration,
between the latter and trade integration, and between trade integration and sectoral
specialization. ptas did not influence the different variables considered. This evidence
suggests that greater trade integration in Peru would intensify the effects of partner
countries’ GDP cycles on Peruvian output in contexts like the 2008 and 2010 crises.

Full text article in pdf format (412 Kbs.)

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